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How human groups and other supra-organisms make decisions
We are living through a very real and public lesson in how human groups adopt beliefs, make decisions, and take actions, as related to the beliefs, decisions, and actions of the individuals who belong to those groups. This can teach us a lot about the strengths and weaknesses of our species and our long-term prospects for survival.
As I write this, people in the United States are divided in their beliefs about who is their President-elect. A significant minority are unwilling to concede that the recent election is over and the result is known. Yet it is very likely that, within a few months — by late January at the latest — almost everyone will agree that one candidate will be inaugurated as and will be the new President, whether we like it or not. So this is an opportunity to reflect on how the group decision-making process works, and how it relates to decision-making processes in the minds of the individuals who make up a group.
First, let’s see if we agree on what a decision is. I understand the word “decision” to mean a choice between two or more mutually incompatible beliefs and/or actions. If your idea of a decision is significantly different from my idea, you and I have a problem of communicating. In that case, you will probably stop reading this essay now, unless you are…
